Energy 2050 forecast

This report describes the results of a pilot project on citizen involvement in the definition of long-term energy scenarios for the Flemish context (taking into account its embedment in North-Western Europe). The project's aims were to:

1. develop a widely supported future vision of the Flemish energy system;
2. develop transition paths towards this desirable future vision;
3. translate these transition paths into tangible policy recommendations destined to feed into the debate about post-Kyoto policy measures;
4. draw methodological lessons from the pilot project for future interactive exercises organised by viWTA.

Since most foresight exercises in the energy field are expert-based, traditional methods had to be adapted to the needs of citizen involvement. The project methodology consisted of an alternation between citizen panels and expert reflection and guidance. In particular, the project methodology combined the 'foresight' and 'backcasting' approach in an innovative way. The foresight part consisted of three 'steps':

1. A 'definition workshop': in this workshop, a group of energy experts selected the most important 'driving forces' behind the Flemish energy system, and reflected on uncertainty and mutual influence of these 'forces';
2. An 'introductory workshop': in this workshop, the citizens participating in the exercise were made more familiar with the basic concepts of the energy system and scenario-building;
3. A 'scenario workshop': in this workshop, the citizens identified three future visions for the Flemish energy system, based on a selection and combination of the (according to their insights) three most important 'driving forces'.

The backcasting part also consisted of three steps:

1. A 'selection workshop', in which the citizens (aided by expert comments) designated the most desirable future vision of the three visions developed earlier;
2. A 'backcasting workshop', in which an expert panel identified milestones, goals, intermediate goals and milestones for realising the desirable future vision;
3. A 'policy workshop', in which an expert panel translated the milestones, goals and intermediate goals into practical short-term policy recommendations.

All in all the citizen foresight exercise led to satisfactory results. Despite the process limitations imposed by traditional 'foresight' scenario methodologies, citizens were able to identify saltatory changes and creative solutions, resulting in three diverse and challenging future visions supported by appealing storylines. In the backcasting part of the project, the most desirable vision/storyline had to be translated into tangible policy recommendations. Here, the success was more partial. On the one hand, the backcasting process arrived at original proposals regarding technology and infrastructure of the future energy system (e.g. transportation, building sector, services, etc.). On the other hand, although the chosen vision was supported by a consensus of the citizens participating in the project, the wider societal and cultural backing of the proposed measures remained an object of concern (e.g. dematerialisation of goods and services, collectivisation of services, flexible working patterns, etc.). Also the institutional backing on the local and international level remains unclear.